Gobert or Go Home

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Five games remain in the 2017-2018 NBA season and playoff positioning is still in flux and heating up. On the other side of the water cooler is another conversation that is starting to simmer: awards and All-NBA honors. Does Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert have a place in these discussions?

Yes, duh.

ICYMI: The Utah Jazz will get into the playoffs because they play defense. The numbers back it up and you can digest it all here. Or, for a tribute on what makes Joe Ingles so endearing, click here. 

All-NBA Center

In an NBA dominated by space, pace, threes and guards, the center was a position going out of style. Flash forward to 2018, and the center is making a comeback with a plethora of a bigs making an impact on the court.

First Team: Anthony Davis. He does it on both ends and makes the game of basketball look so easy. AD is a freak who can score from anywhere and then swat shots from anywhere, too. He is one of the Best-Five players in the NBA right now, an MVP and DPOY candidate, and soooooo close (hello competent organization and coach) from taking over the world. Remember his bench is JV and he lost buddy DeMarcus Cousins to an Achilles injury, yet the Pelicans are still in the mix for a home court advantage in the playoffs. Why? Two words: the unibrow.

Second Team: Joel Embiid. Another selection that can’t necessarily be refuted. A recent eye fracture is causing the Big Fella to miss the last ten games of the season, but, before that, he was relatively healthy and able to play the majority of the season without any setbacks to either foot or leg or knee or whatever voodoo magic befalls his lower body. Embiid appeared in 63 regular season games, posting 23 points, 11 rebounds, and almost two blocks. His PER was up, 23, and he led the Sixers to a (current) 46-30 record. He has Twitter fire and a fling for Rhianna, but his impact on the court will be a force for years to come as he continues to stay healthy. He was the real deal this season.

Next up: Aside from Gobert, we have Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), rebound machine Andre Drummond (Detroit), and then Timberwolf Karl-Anthony Towns. With no disrespect to Jokic or Drum, the final slot will ultimately come down to the Towns or Gobert.

Towns or Gobert?

Picking between Towns or Gobert is showcasing your preference of style in the modern NBA. Both are extremely talented players, but that talent is displayed on polar opposites of skill and court. For Towns, it’s offense. For Gobert, it’s defense.

Disclaimer: picking one style over the other in no way diminishes the opposing skill. By saying I like Gobert better should not demean Mr. Towns. Like, dude, Karl is an excellent, extremely skilled and efficient modern-day big man who can get it done in multiple ways, as evidenced by his recent 56-point explosion. He’s good and we should recognize that as such.

BUT

If we are talking about winning and impacting a winning team, I’m going with Gobert seven days out of seven and every day that ends in Y. If we are picking dogfights, I’m picking the pit bull Gobert. If we are going to battle, I want Gobert on the front line. I believe Gobert is one of the best centers in the NBA, but health took a blow on the legitimacy of his candidacy.

The stats between the two, this season alone, look like this:

Player Season Age GP W L Win% MIN FGM FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% FTM FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK PF TOV PTS
R. Gobert 2018
2017
2016
2015
2014 		25 51 33 18 65% 32.7 5.0 7.9 62% 0.0 0.0 0% 3.8 5.5 69% 10.8 1.3 0.8 2.3 2.7 1.8 13.7
K. Towns 2018
2017
2016 		22 78 44 34 56% 35.5 7.7 14.2 54% 1.5 3.5 42% 4.3 5.0 86% 12.3 2.4 0.8 1.4 3.4 2.0 21.2

Obviously, Gobert has only appeared in 51 games, while Towns has yet to miss a contest. However, the Jazz have won 65% of games played with Gobert which again show his instrumental impact to Utah.

Let’s pause there first.

65% of an 82 game season would give the Jazz a 53 win-season, while Town’s 56% projection gives them a 46 win-season. In our current Western Conference standings, that pits the Jazz as the *projected* third seed and Minnesota as 7th, where they do currently reside. The point is: when Gobert is healthy, the Jazz are dominant.

But when is an if, and that’s the biggest counter to Gobert: health.

The chart above also shows that Towns can stretch the floor and shoot threes, 42%, but Gobert gets your defense with 2.3 blocks and .8 steals a game. Again, picking between the two is a matter of basketball preference. Do you want – do you value – the O or the D?

Head-to-head, Gobert won two of three matchups vs Minnesota this year. In all three matchups, Towns has been below average against his French nemesis, as Towns scored 20, 13, and 20 points this year. Gobert took it personally and harassed Minnesota each night, collecting 10 blocks across all three matchups. Perhaps Gobs knows Towns is his archetype as he plays with an edge vs the All-Star, holding an 8-2 record vs Towns in the three seasons matched up together.

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If we want to look at advanced stats, Towns wins it.

Gobert has a 20.9 PER this year with a 7.5 win share. Another deep stat I like is called VORP — Value over Replacement Player — which “estimate the points per 100 TEAM possessions that a player contributed above a replacement-level player, translated to an average team and prorated to an 82-game season.” For Gobert, that number is 2.6. Towns, on the other hand, has a 25 PER, a 13 win share, and a 5.1 VORP which are all higher numbers than the Stifle Tower.

Can we justify the difference? Numbers beat numbers so we can counter and say: “well Utah does have an Offense Rating at 124 with Gobert on the court. If Towns is so much better on that side of the ball, why are they at 126 with him on their court?” Oh, and Defensive Rating? 100 for Utah with Gobert, 108 for Towns and Minny.

Bleacher Report recently pointed out that Towns is first among centers in Offensive RPM at 3.79 (basically a good offensive player) but 62nd among centers in Defensive RPM at .43 (yeah, basically a not-so-good defensive player). However, his overall RPM score is a 4.22 which would rank him fourth among all centers. His offensive game is that good it skews the score and carries him higher.

If Gobert misses out on All-NBA it won’t be a travesty but it also wouldn’t change my opinion that he is one of the best three centers in the NBA. You tell me: should he get recognized as such or does he barely miss the cut?

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DPOY

As mentioned multiple times above, Gobert’s bread and butter is smothering defense. Last year, the man with the nine-foot-seven standing reach took second place to Draymond Green, 434-269.

This year, Draymond has lost a step and dealt with a variety of injuries. He is still good, and an excellent defender, but he won’t be defending his crown as DPOY. Another name usually in the conversation for this award is Kawhi Leonard who has missed all but nine games to a quad injury. For once, it seems the award is up for the taking.

Green’s teammate Kevin Durant has actually been the anchor of the Warrior defense, so he is in consideration. Embiid and Davis are back in the mix, Paul George is lengthy and leads the league in steals while helping the Thunder stay afloat in the crowded West playoff boat, and Al Horford is the man for one of the best defensive teams in Boston.

BUT

Could a 56-game-played Gobert take the crown?

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ESPN published a piece talking about it. Rudy Gobert said he is (“I’ve been the most impactful player this year”). Quin Snyder said he is (“I think it’s an empirical fact, frankly”). Paul Pierce said Gobert had his vote. And, the Utah Jazz made this video and infographic to prove it.

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They aren’t wrong. Sure, it might be a watered-down competition, but Gobert does have a point that he has been the most impactful player on the defensive end of the NBA this year. It’s ridiculous because no one even comes that close.

Currently, the Jazz are third in the NBA with a Defensive Rating of 101.9. For context, Boston is first with 101.3. David Locke, voice of the Jazz, takes this all a step further and points out that with Rudy on the floor this season, the Jazz sport a 97.2 Defensive Rating. Since he returned from injury on Jan. 19th, the Jazz have a 94.7 Defensive Rating.

Go ahead, re-read that paragraph again.

If he qualified with games played, Gobert would be second in the NBA in blocks per game at 2.3/night. Even still, he and the Jazz are top-five, top-ten in nearly all defensive categories, as I outlined last week in my feature highlight the Jazz D.

Perhaps his absence and return only strengthens his resume as the Jazz are 24-7 since his return with that potent defense he anchors. It’s no surprise that the team has also entered the playoff picture, even holding (small) hopes to home court advantage. The five-man unit with Gobert, Crowder, Ingles, Mitchell, and Rubio is lethal (like lethally lethal), opponents shoot worst against the Jazz than any other team, points in the paint is the fewest in the league, and I could go on and on. AKA: The Gobert Effect is real.

Spencer Davies of BasketballInsiders.com is claiming Gobert as his DPOY and wrote the following:

Despite the disadvantage of playing fewer minutes than his peers, Gobert’s defensive metrics are right up there with some figures at the very top of the mountain. For example, the French big man leads everybody in DRPM (5.11), ranks second in DPBM (4.5), and has saved the fifth-most points (140.26) according to NBA Math.

Go ahead, re-read that paragraph again, too.

In short, if Rudy Gobert doesn’t win the Defensive Player of the Year this year, I’ll be upset. Perhaps worse for the league, however, is that Gobert, too, would be upset. On second thought, go ahead snub him again. Let’s see how that works out for you, rims and Spaldings included.

If you like what you’re reading, sign up for my email list, follow me on Twitter @paragraphe12 or go like The Tortured Fan Instagram. As always, Go Jazz and #TakeNote. 

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