Who in the West Has A Chance? Whose Playoff Spot Can the Utah Jazz overtake?

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The Rockets and Warriors are the cream of the crop in the NBA, and specifically in the Western Conference. After that, however, you’ll find a vicious race for playoff positioning from teams 3rd-10th, that flip flops on the daily. I teamed up with Jesse Thayne, from the J-Notes and The Jazz Note Blog, to look at who challenges the Jazz en route to playoff seeding. Who gets in, and maybe more importantly, who actually has a shot versus the best of the west?

3 – Portland Trail Blazers: Jesse

The Blazers are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. They’re currently sitting on an eight game winning streak, where one of those wins came against our very own Utah Jazz. One thing you can’t deny is the greatness of Damian Lillard.

During their eight game win streak, Lillard is averaging 33 points per game. With Lillard playing how he has been and their defense being as good as it is (5th in the league), the Blazers will be a team that nobody will want to face during this final stretch of the season.

The success of the Blazers falls mostly on the shoulders of their high scoring backcourt of Lillard and McCollum. If they can continue playing at this high of a level, they stand to have a very good chance of maintaining home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Beware of the Blazers, they mean business.

4 – New Orleans: Steve

The Pelicans run to success is tied to two words: Anthony Davis. When you have a dominating force that is, well, dominating with such force, you win games.

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Consider:

  • 53 points, 18 rebounds, 5 blocks, win over Phoenix
  • 45 points, 17 rebounds, 5 blocks, 5 steals win over Miami
  • 44 points, 17 rebounds, win over Brooklyn
  • 43 points, 10 rebounds, win over Oklahoma City
  • 42 points, 15 rebounds, win over Los Angeles Lakers
  • 38 points, 10 rebounds, win over Detroit
  • 38 points, 9 rebounds, loss to Minnesota

All of this happened in the month of February, after BBFF – big best friend forever – Demarcus Cousins went down with a season-ending achilles injury. New Orleans has played 16 games since Cousins went down. Since then, Davis has averaged 33.1 points, 13.3 rebounds, 2.5 blocks, 2.4, and 2.1 assists.

And speaking of that Boogie injury, it was that event that many thought would lead to a Pelican free-fall. They had little front court depth, too little star talent, and too brutal of an ending schedule to overcome the devastating injury. Instead? They went 9-3 in February and are currently on a nine-game win streak. They are even winning the nail-biters, the comebacks, and the last minute games.

Consider:

  • Win 121-116 over the Clippers:
    • Clips up four with two minutes left, Davis scores six straight and Pelicans end game with a 12-3 run in 1:16. AD even left for a bit with a rib injury.
  • Win 121-116 over the Spurs:
    • overcame a 15-point deficit, including a 34-21 fourth quarter.
  • Win 123-121 over the Bucks:
    • Jrue Holiday scores 28 of his 36 after halftime and the Pelicans overcome a 18-point deficit to win in OT.
  • Win 124-123 over Miami:
    • Holiday gets the game-winner with seven seconds left to edge the Heat in OT.

My point is: this run has been amazing and awesome. Can it continue? For how godly and destructive AD has been, can he keep going? Can he carry that stat line into April? They are bound to regress…..Right?

5 – San Antonio: Jesse

San Antonio has been a huge surprise for me this year. Considering Kawhi Leonard has only played a handful of games, I would have never guessed they would do as well as they have done. For the majority of the season they were 3rd in the West. But they have since dropped to the 5th spot, and are only 3-7 in their last ten games.

Two big reasons for their lack luster play over the past few weeks are strength of schedule, and LaMarcus Aldridge dealing with injuries. Aldridge has been the go-to guy for SA this year. With Kawhi out, he’s had to step-up and claim the role as primary scorer; and he’s done a phenomenal job thus far.

This is arguably his best year since coming to SA in 2015. He’s averaging 22 points per game, and eight rebounds per game. But he’s been dealing with an ankle injury the last week or two. His health can be the determining factor for whether or not the Spurs can make the playoffs.

With how tough their schedule is, 15/18 games remaining are against teams over .500, I could see them slipping quite a bit. Especially if Aldridge can’t stay healthy. It’s kind of shocking to say, but this might be the first year in a long time that SAS might have a chance of not making the playoffs.

They still have a very tough road ahead of them. Some of those games are: GSW, at OKC, at HOU, vs GSW, vs WAS, and vs UTA.

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6 – Minnesota: Steve

Minnesota is another team in the west that is rebounding on the fly after dealing with an injury to a superstar. Despite the young cats on the roster, Butler is the main guy. He averaged 22 points a night, in a hefty 37 minutes, but according to ESPN’s advanced stats, he led all players in Wins – 11.49 – and was third in the league in Real Plus-Minus, behind Harden and Paul of Houston.

But then he suffered a torn meniscus on February 23rd versus the Rockets. Since then, the Wolves are 2-2 but the losses were to Western Conference foes Portland and Utah. On top of that, we remember how that Jazz game ended in frustration for the Wolves as KAT was ejected in the second quarter, Jeff Teague clotheslined Ricky Rubio and was subsequently ejected, and then Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler exchanged hands via words via Twitter.

Coach Thibodeau runs his rotation fairly thin, playing only eight guys, and now has to do some heavier lifting without Butler. They still have All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns to wreak havoc down low and Andrew Wiggins will be expected to take a leap offensively to keep the Wolves afloat.

But don’t worry: Derrick Rose to the rescue. It was reported Thursday morning that Rose will accept a deal to join the Minnesota TimberBulls. He’ll *certainly* help them.

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In short, this is a team that should take a hit. Rose walking through that door isn’t going to make a difference. Plus, Butler is out until the playoffs, and the Jazz should take advantage of his absence so Butler doesn’t even have to return to basketball this season; he can watch from the couch and tweet to Crowder instead.   

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7 – Oklahoma City: Jesse

With the arrival of Paul George, the Thunder have looked like one of the top teams in the West. George is having a great year, averaging 22 points per game, while shooting a career high 41% from three. His impact cannot be denied.

Defensively the Thunder are about as good as they were last year, but a big difference is that they no longer have their best defender – Andre Roberson. Without Roberson, the Thunder will look to have some of their younger players like Josh Huestis and Jerami Grant continue to contribute in a large way.

As good as the Thunder have been, they have lost their last two games, and are 6-4 over their last 10 games. Their remaining schedule is also not so favorable as they still have some tough games ahead: vs SAS, at TOR, at BOS, vs GSW, and at SAS.

But I have a hard time seeing them not make the playoffs. I think they will fall somewhere between 6-8 in the final standings.

8 – Denver: Steve

On Wednesday night (March 7th), the Utah Jazz won while the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets lost. Subsequently, the standings flipped into a three-way tie for the 8th and final playoff spot in the west. The final push to the playoffs will continue to flip flop between these three teams the rest of the way, probably on a nightly basis.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Wednesday night helped the Jazz as they increased their playoffs odds to 79%. The Nuggets, on the other hand, dipped to 44%.

Denver is led by Nikola Jokic, who is quietly having an impressive season. He should be considered in the All-NBA Center conversation with his 17 ppg – on 49% from the field and 37% from three – 6 apg, 10.5 rpg. What sets Jokic apart are those assist numbers as he is a pass-happy big man who has great eyes to see the floor and find cutters. His six assists per game is the fifth highest average ever by a player 6-foot-10 or taller, according to basketball-reference.com. With Jokic passing the ball around, and Denver employing many shooters and scorers, the Nugs rank 8th in the NBA in points per game, with 108.6.

The problem, however, is on the other side of the ball as Denver isn’t the best defensive team in the NBA. Currently, the Nuggets endorse a 108.6 Defensive Rating, which ranks in the bottom five of the NBA. They don’t defend the pick-and-roll effectively and they don’t have a legit rim protector to anchor their defense. They do have Gary Harris, a quality defender, and Paul Milsap, a known defender, but Harris is undersized and Milsap has missed most of the season and is getting older. Should the Nuggets miss out on a playoff berth, it would be because of their defense.

9 -Los Angeles: Jesse

The Clippers have been somewhat of a surprise team this year. Most people before the season started probably didn’t see the Clippers doing this well, especially if you would have told them that Blake Griffin would be traded to the Pistons before the trade deadline. But somehow, someway, they’re in playoff contention.

One big reason for that is Tobias Harris. Harris was acquired by LA in the trade of Blake Griffin. Since Harris was traded to the Clippers, he’s been better in nearly every statistical category. He’s taken the role of primary scorer in stride and is averaging just under 20 points per game, along with seven rebounds per game, and three assists per game, while shooting a career high in eFG% (54.9%).

However, even with Harris playing well, I have a hard time seeing the Clippers make the playoffs. They have some tough games remaining – at HOU, at OKC, at MIN, at TOR, and at UTA, just to name a few. I predict the Clippers will most likely end up in the 10th spot, looking from the outside in.

10 – Utah: Steve and Jesse

NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 15: Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Utah Jazz reacts in the final minutes of the game against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on November 15, 2017 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Listen, the Jazz are getting into the playoffs. I’m sure of it. They have a 4th Quarter closer in Donovan Mitchell, a defensive anchor in Rudy Gobert, a glue guy in Joe Ingles, and a coach who gets it done in Quin Snyder. Unlike the teams I covered, they are healthy and easing into normalcy with its rotation and minute distribution. On top of that, the team complements each other perfectly and the balance between offense and defense has been stellar since January (in fact, the Jazz have a 2.4 net rating,  which balances O and D, for the season, which is 8th in the NBA). They are a playoff caliber-team and by the end of the day, they’ll be holding a spot. If you don’t live in Utah, bet on it.

Jesse – I agree with Steve on this one. The Jazz have 17 games remaining. Of those 17, only 9 are against teams over .500. Out of the teams currently fighting for a playoff spot, the Jazz have the easiest schedule remaining.

If the offense can stay in a groove and continue to move and shoot the ball like they were able to against Indiana Wednesday night, then I see them being a tough team to keep out of the playoffs.

Plus, count this as your friendly reminder that Dante Exum will be back on the court soon. Even if Exum only plays 15-20 minutes per game, he will add improved defense in the backcourt, and more depth for the Jazz. The West is full of teams with stacked backcourts – HOU (CP3 & Harden), GSW (Curry & Thompson), and POR (Lillard & McCollum). This will be a huge lift for the Jazz in the most important time of the season.

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