A few weeks ago, we looked at Donovan Mitchell stacked up against Jazz rookies of recent memory. So far into the season, Mitchell has raced past Gordon Hayward’s production as a rookie and looking like an All-Rookie 1st Team lock like Deron Williams.  The numbers show he is arguably more productive than the previous Rookie of the Year winner Malcom Brogdon, but is it time to start dreaming bigger?

Comps to Dwyane Wade

As the Utah Jazz considered drafting Donovan Mitchell, a lot of scouts and draft experts were giving Mitchell a ceiling of D-Wade. Scout.com had a thread about it, Chad Ford, a former ESPN draft expert, wrote that “His elite athleticism, length, and game give him a passing resemblance to a young Dwyane Wade,” but also noting “I don’t think [Mitchell] has that same ceiling [as Wade], but his talent is definitely worth taking a risk on here.”

At first, it doesn’t make sense but consider:

• DM: 6 ft 3, DW: 6 ft 4
• In college, D-Wade had career highs of 35 points, 14 rebounds, 11 assists, 7 steals, and 4 blocks.
• For Mitchell, his college career high is 29 points, 10 rebounds, 7 assists, 7 steals, and 4 blocks.
• Rookie Year D-Wade had 16.2 ppg, .6 blocks, 1.4 steals, 4.5 apg, 4 rpg, and 3 turnovers in 35 minutes a night.
• Currently, DM is at 17.2 ppg, .4 blocks, 1.4 steals, 3.2 apg, 3 rpg, and 2.5 turnovers in 30 minutes a night.

The stats are nice, but it’s the style of play that really shows flashes of similarities. Younger D-Wade was a slasher, with an amazing off the bounce aerial assault. He was quick off the dribble, quicker down the court without the ball, and able to cut, dance, and spin his way to the basket with ease. Watch his rookie highlights and tell me you don’t see Mitchell in him. Spoiler: You are wrong.

 

Comps to Darrell Griffith

It’s a blast to the past as Griffith played for the Utah Jazz in the 80s, winning the Rookie of the Year award in 1981, and ended up getting his jersey hung in the rafters after he retired. When the Jazz drafted Mitchell, Grif told the Jazz:  “They got a jewel.” Griffith and Mitchell are fun comparisons, but they also have a history as both attended Lousiville and were connected via Rick Pitino.

Last week, Kyle Goon of the Salt Lake Tribune wrote an awesome feature on Griffith and Mitchell, pointing out specifically their rookie numbers. Goon notes:

Obviously their games were a little different, their supporting casts as well — but the Mitchell-Griffith stats comparison is still a pretty fun one pic.twitter.com/rQWjVDy5m8

— Kyle Goon (@kylegoon) December 6, 2017

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsIn a few more minutes a game, Griffith averaged a few more points but Mitchell is leaps ahead in three-point shooting percentage, a sign of how much the NBA has changed in the decade since 1980 since Griffith became one of the NBAs best marksmen. All other categories, including turnovers, are strikingly similar which bodes well for Mitchell’s production for the rest of his career. If he can continue to grow, develop, and progress on the trajectory as Griffith did, we may have a 45 in the rafters one day.

Comps to Damian Lillard

The Jazz fan’s favorite comparison: D.O.L.L.A Dame.

• DM: 6 ft 3, DL: 6 ft 3
• DM: 13th pick, DL: 10th pick
• Rookie Lillard: 19 points, 6.5 assists, and 3 rebounds in 39 minutes a night. 37% from deep on 6 attempts a night.
• Currently, DM is at 17.2 ppg, 3.2 apg, 3 rpg in 30 minutes a night. 37% from deep on 6.5 attempts a night.

Just looking at the stats, it’s easy to see that Lillard was, and is, a special talent on the offensive side of the ball. He played heavy minutes as a rookie, but he controlled the offense for Portland which led to more buckets for him and others. The ball was in his hands and he did his thing. Mitchell isn’t the starting point guard in Utah (yet?), but has controlled the offense at times, where he has shown glimpses as a playmaker.

In the blowout vs Washington, Mitchell was playing in the game after his 41 point explosion. He could’ve easily tried to hunt for another big game, he easily could’ve regressed from the night before, he easily could’ve tried to do too much. Instead, he played within the offense, made shots, but also looked to get others involved. Case in point:

Straight down the barrel #WASatUTA #MACU3 pic.twitter.com/KF1D30G2ft

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) December 5, 2017

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsHe has always been willing to get teammates involved, but now is doing so more efficiently. He is making the right reads and the right passes instead of forcing turnovers. More importantly, when he is on the court, he is a shooting threat just like Lillard.

In fact, Mitchell just surpassed Lillard with the most 3FG by a rookie within 25 games, making 61 to Lillard’s 56.

As well, only two players in the 3-point era have averaged at least 14 field goal attempts per game and at least six 3s per game in their rookie season, per Basketball-Reference. Damian Lillard is one of them. So far, Mitchell is the other.

Paolo Uggetti, of the Ringer, wrote on the comparisons between these two studs last week and complimented Mitchell by saying:

“Mitchell’s stat line isn’t the only thing comparable to Lillard. There are shades of Lillard’s nimbleness and force in Mitchell’s basketball DNA. But Mitchell’s athleticism and wingspan are better than Lillard’s, and though the Blazers point guard already knows how to run an offense, Mitchell has already flashed the potential to do just that.”

Playmaking and deep shots are the main similarities between the two, while Lillard holds the advantage as a distributor and the complete scorer. Defensively, Mitchell holds the edge.

It’s also interesting that Rookie Lillard held a 7-point edge in offensive rating (an estimate of points produced per 100 possessions) while Mitchell holds a 7-point edge in defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions).

After Spida and D-Lillard squared off in October, Lillard raved about the rookie. He said:

“In this league, confidence is everything and he definitely has it,” he said of Mitchell. “Then the second half, when the game really means something, everything’s on the line and he’s still knocking down shots and being aggressive. You know that he’s going to have an impact because it’s in him. He has the confidence.”

The two are friends off the court, but the on-court similarities may soon turn them into friendly rivals.

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Whats fun about Mitchell is that these comparisons don’t seem hyperbolic, but realistic. On the court, Mitchell doesn’t look like a rookie thrust into a new system, a new offense and defense, and becoming the lead focal point for the team. He is already a polished player with go-to moves – the crossover, euro step, layup – and a reliable pull-up jumper that is as smooth as a baby’s bottom.  He is getting more consistent with his deep bombs and has adapted his game to thrive in the NBA. The Ringer pointed out that 72 percent of his field goals have come either within three feet of the basket or from behind the arc, which is exactly what the modern-NBA craves. When you add his defense into the equation, the thing that made him an NBA product in the first place, it’s easy to be excited about Mitchell’s potential in the NBA, and lucky for us, in Utah.