Spida Mitch vs Jazz Rookies: We’re In For a Treat.

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NOTE: This article was updated as of 12/5 to include Mitchell’s 41 point outburst and the fanfare that followed. 

Not only is Jazz rookie Donovan Mitchell stacking up among the best in the star-studded 2017 draft class, but he is providing Jazz fans with optimism and statistics that a Jazz rookie hasn’t enjoyed in recent memory.

The 2017 NBA Draft is one for the books. There’s Ben Simmons who is averaging a near triple-double after his year sabbatical due to injuries, making him the front-runner for the Rookie of the Year award. On the West Coast is polarizing Lonzo Ball who looks like Michael Carter-Williams with a worse jump shot one night, but then a Jason Kidd 2.0 the next night. Dennis Smith, Jr. is breaking rims on a nightly basis for Dallas and Jaysum Tatum has everyone drooling due to his all-around game in Boston.

In Utah, we are not drooling, but slobbering over our prized rookie, Mitchell.

Hoops Habit has Mitchell as their 4th best rookie this year while the website GiveMeSport has him at 3rd. Sports Illustrated got involved and wrote a nice piece placing him 3rd on their rookie ladder, too. Considering the Jazz snagged him with the 13th pick after a deal with Denver (#ThanksDenver), that’s pretty good.

The Jazz didn’t have the best luck with NBA drafts in the early 2000s and then started getting lottery picks in the 2010s. Picks were hit or miss. Consider:

  • 2000 – Pick 23: DeShawn Stevenson – straight out of high school; averaged 6 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist and 17 minutes a night but did finish 2nd in the Dunk Contest (Five minutes of makes and misses right here: You’re welcome).
  • 2001 – Pick 24: Raul Lopez – four picks later the Spurs drafted another international point guard named Tony Parker.
  • 2002 – Pick 19: Ryan Humphrey but traded to grab Curtis Borchardt whose Jazz highlight was making the All Rocky Mountain Review 1st Team in 2004. Whoohoo.
  • 2003 – Pick 19: Sasha Pavlovic who averaged 5 points and 2 rebounds and was gone the next year; took Mo Williams 47 in the second round.
  • 2004 – Pick 14: Kris Humphries; Pick 16: Kirk Snyder; Pick 21: Pavel Podkolzin
    • OK, OK, the Jazz had three mid-first round picks. They took a PF,  a SG, and then a C.  They immediately traded Podkolzin away to Dallas, but they still had three chances to get something.
    • After a miss on a high lottery pick, it’s easy to say “we could’ve had so and so,” but this draft class had a ton of talent in the middle rounds. No stars, sure, but a good chunk of players who had solid careers. The Jazz could have had any combination of: Al Jefferson went 15th, Josh Smith 17th, J.R. Smith 18th, Dorell Wright 19th, Jameer Nelson 20th, Tony Allen 25th, Kevin Martin 26th, Sasha Vujacic 27th, Beno Udrih at 28th; Anderson Varejao and Trevor Ariza were second round gems.
  • 2005 – Pick 3: Deron WIliams – more on him below; CJ Miles at Pick 34: Miles didn’t peak as a rookie (straight out of high school) but gave the Jazz a so-so tenure, peaking in 2010/11 when he averaged 12.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.7 assists as a 23-year-old.
  • 2006 – Pick 14: Ronnie Brewer Pick 14; Pick 46: Dee Brown at 46, Pick 47: Paul Milsap
    • I include Brown because he was my favorite.
  • 2007 – Pick 25: Morris Almond – was a Utah Flash (D-League) sensation; went off for 53!
  • 2008 – Pick 23: Kosta Koufos – gave Utah all he had in the form of 3.3 points and 2.2 rebounds a game.
  • 2009 – Pick 20: Eric Maynor – 26 games as D-Will’s backup. Had a ton of potential and would’ve been fun but we gave him away to Oklahoma City.
  • 2010 – Pick 9: Gordon Hayward – more below.
  • 2011 – Pick 3: Enes Kanter: below Pick 12 Alec Burks – 7.2 points a night in 16 minutes; appeared in 59 of 66 games.
  • 2013 – Pick 9: Trey Burke (after a trade with Minnesota); got the draft rights to Pick 27 Rudy Gobert.
  • 2014 – Pick 5: Dante Exum; Pick 23 Rodney Hood – below.
  • 2015 – Pick 12: Trey Lyles – players named Trey just don’t really like Utah.
  • 2016 – Pick 13: Donovan Mitchell (after a trade with Denver)

 

There were 23 names listed above. How many of those guys played a year or less with the Jazz? How many outlived their rookie contracts? How many cracked 10 points a game? Or, more importantly, how many got Jazz fans excited after being drafted or at least early into their rookie season?

That list above may field a 10-man roster of quality NBA players, but only a few had a promising run wearing the Mountains or J-Note. Even more specifically, only a few had meaningful rookie seasons. Let’s rank them:

6. Statistically, Hayward wasn’t that amazing as the 9th overall pick. He was coming off the bench, but was able to appear in 72 games. He averaged 5.4 points a game, but put 34 in the season finale, a glimpse of what he would someday do for Boston, Utah.

5. Hood played in 50 games his rookie year and gave his career the baseline stats: 8.7 points, 41% from the field, 37% from deep. Hood has progressed immensely since his rookie year, but did show fans he could shoot from deep in his limited playing time early on.

4. Kanter was one of the few Jazz rookies to play in every game of the season (66 since it was a lockout year), which is even more impressing since he did it off the bench. He didn’t put up many points (4.6) but he shot 50% from the field, a staple for the rest of his career. Because of his promise and potential as an inside scorer and offensive rebounder, many wanted Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap to be traded (or walk via free agency) to open up room for the big guy.

3. From a talent, exciting perspective, none gave as many butterflies as Dante Exum. As an unknown rookie, Exum provided exciting lockdown defense with his long arms and the #FreeDante train began rolling from there. His rookie year was the only he played 100% and he eventually started (41 of the 82 games he played). He ended up averaging 4.8 points, 1.6 rebounds, and 2.4 rebounds in 22 minutes. Sadly, could that have been the best of his years?

2. Trey Burke was polarizing in his later years in a Jazz uniform, but initially he provided Jazz fans with optimism. Trading up to get him was the right move as the Jazz needed a PG and he was, arguably, one of the best prospects on the board. He had a successful college career and many admired his leadership, toughness, and big shot ability even if he had defensive limitations or lacked the one-on-one explosion. The majority of fans were excited to have this new floor leader and his rookie year was fun. He started 68 of 70 games he played and averaged 12.8 points and 5.7 assists while paying 32 minutes a night. The shot was off – 38% from the floor and 33% from deep – but he was still selected to the NBA All-Rookie First Team.

1. And then there’s D-Will. The Jazz traded up to get this point guard, too, and he was worth it. While Chris Paul has put in the more impressive career, there was a time when Williams or Paul was a legitimate debate. Jazz fans knew he’d be a stud when he was a rookie as he used his body to play D or get a shot, but was more of a facilitator and floor general, which Jazz fans were used to. His rookie year was the bright spot of a bright run for he and the Jazz, but he started out averaging 11 points, 4.5 assists in 80 games. He was easily selected to the NBA All-Rookie First Team.

 

Which brings us back to Mitchell. It’s been a one-month sample size, but have fans been more excited about a rookie in Jazz history before? In recent memory, the answer has to be a no. He possess one-on-one ability, can shoot from anywhere, can get to the hoop whenever he pleases, plays defense with tenacity, and looks to pass and run an offense. He shoots a lot, but that may be because no on else on the roster will or because the ball ends in his hands with a late shot clock, knowing he can create something or make tough shots. He hasn’t been afraid of the moment or opponents, holding his own against Damian Lillard or standing up to Joel Embiid. He has the athleticism to make highlight reels and the range with a silky smooth shot to look unstoppable at times.

We’re 20 games into the season and his averages look like this:

  • 12 starts, 20 games. 28 minutes/night.
  • 38% from the field, 34% from deep (he shoots six bombs a game!)
  • 15 points, 2.0 blocks+steals, 3.2 assists, 2.6 rebounds.

His points per game are higher than anyone on the lists above. His assists are lower than Williams and Burke who were traditional and universal point guards, while Mitchell is a combo-guard, running the offense occasionally. Notice his current percentages are (eerily) similar to Burke but his defense is so far ahead of where Burke was (as a rookie or currently).

The comparison between Burke and Mitchell is valid as both were asked to carry a rather large load as rookies. Trey didn’t have much offense around him as a rookie (lots of up-and-comers were pitching in point averages in the teens).  Burke also broke a finger before the season started and the Jazz couldn’t win a game (went 1-11). Once he was inserted into the starting lineup, things changed, which we’ve seen with this Jazz roster adapting around Mitchell’s starting lineup insertion.

The difference between Mitchell and Burke, and all other Jazz rookies, has to simply be the eye-test. One can see that Mitchell has the IT factor, the WOW factor when he is soaring for dunks and smiling after threes. He seems cool, collected, and calm, even under bright lights and big stages.

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Yet, on top of that, he remains humble and grounded. On the recent East Coast road trip, Mitchell surprised his Mom’s school and class with tickets, but then also gave his mom a new car.

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Looking back on the pre-draft comparisons, many knew Mitchell would be able to shoot in the NBA which would help him be a 3-and-D specialist, a solid last starter or rotation piece on any contending team. Bleacher Report framed it like this: “What do you get when you roll P.J. Tucker’s doggedness and a young Thabo Sefolsha’s pluck and streaky shooting into one smaller-sized package? A more established Normal Powell. So, Donovan Mitchell.”

Powell has been in the NBA for three years for Toronto and is currently averaging 9.5 points, 1.7 stocks, 2 assists, and 2 rebounds which is all below Mitchell’s season averages. Advanced stats tell a similar story. Powell is currently good for .6 Win Share and .4 Defensive Win Share whereas rookie Mitchell is at .3 Win Share and .7 Defensive Win Share. If Mitchell continues to develop and progress, he should leap the Powell comparison as Mitchell’s Per36 Minute stats calculate to 19, 4, and 4 which is slightly below Hayward-esque status. 

Mitchell is even above last year’s Rookie of the Year winner, Malcom Brogdon, who won the award (because Embiid only played 1/3 of the season) with 10 points a game and 40% from deep in 75 games (28 starts). If Mitchell can keep his numbers consistent, he should easily surpass the production Brogdon contributed last year for the Bucks, minus the shooting percentages since Mitchell is streaky.  Case in point: For the month of November, Mitchell is averaging 19.9 PPG, 2.4 APG, and 3 RPG, with 42% shooting and 34% from three. That’s amazing, but it’s a smaller sample size within this already small sample size.

The Jazz are lucky to have Mitchell, both now and in the future. He carries himself like a star while remaining true to himself and hungry for more. The first 20 games have given the Jazz a glimpse of his potential, especially when anchored with Rudy Gobert on defense and another scorer in the future. If Mitchell can develop and progress each season like Hayward and Hood have, the Jazz will be in good shape moving forward with their SpidaStar.

Update 12/5/17

Kyle Kuzma, of the Los Angeles Lakers, won the October/November Rookie of the Month award for the Western Conference. While Mitchell finished the month strong, he did start out a bit rough. Consider:

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Kuzma has been playing really well for the Lakers, leaps and bounds better than their other top draft pick, but Mitchell has been surprising the NBA ever since he was inserted into the Jazz starting line-up in place of Rodney Hood. When thrust into that starting line-up, Mitchell was forced to shoot more and seemed rushed. Lately, the game has slowed down for him, he is making good decisions and taking good shots. After getting snubbed, Mitchell went off and dropped 41.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThat night Mitchell did it all and did it efficiently. He went 13-25 from the field, including 50% from deep, 6-12. He added four rebounds and four assists in his 36 minutes, finishing the game as +11, which means the Jazz outscored the Pelicans from eleven when Mitchell was on the floor. The 41-point explosion also put Mitchell in some rare company:

 

Mitchell’s game was already taking the NBA by storm, but more and more stars and coaches are recognizing the Jazz for getting something special. After the game against the Pelicans, star Boogie Cousins asked the Jazz bench “where the (heck) did you guys find him?” Before the next game, against the Wizards, coach Scott Brooks claimed Mitch as the “best rookie in the NBA,” but after the game, he changed the sentiment to one of the “best players in the league.”

USA Today even got in the mix, moving Mitchell up there Rookie Ladder and making the assertion that the “Jazz have found themselves a star in the making” while also becoming “the most fun rookie there is.” Prior to the game against Oklahoma City, Paul George is saying that Mitchell is really good and “could be the steal of the whole draft.” After facing the Houston Rockets, Chris Paul threw some praise Mitchell’s way.

“One thing you can’t teach is the passion for the game and the aggression. You see how much he loves it, how he comes out and competes every night. Utah got a gem in him.”

You would think he’d put up a dud in the game after his explosion, either by regression, fatigue, or trying to duplicate and do too much. That was not the case as the Jazz blitzed the Wizards, with Mitchell setting the tone early with the first seven points for the team, and then a dish to Joe Ingles for a corner three. Mitchell finished the game with 21 points, on 8-13 shooting, in just 26 minutes. By crossing 20+ points, again, SpydaMitch became the first rookie since Karl Malone to score twenty in three straight games. On top of that:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsOh, and he also had another highlight dunk:

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