The Conference Championships have been a snooze-fest and all I can think about is Cavs-Warriors, the Third.

In most movies, the third movie is the best. Think about Lord of the Rings. The first one is nice and it sets it all up and Gandalf dies and then the second one is just a transition piece and kind of blah but Gandalf is back and the Battle of Helms Deep is legit, but the third; the third is with all the action, battle after battle, Frodo vs Sam vs Gollum, the finale. If Cavs/Warriors is a movie (Cavorriors?), and the second finals match-up was supposed to be the one that sucked, then I am quite excited for this third round.

So, who do you pick?

Wait. Before we begin, take a minute to remember math class from high school. So boring, right? Well, sometimes, if you paid attention, you’d remember that you can look up answers in the back of the book. Sometimes, the answers would have something like 35 > 31. Remember that symbol? Well its function means Greater Than. Its little brother looks like this < and means the opposite: Less Than. Great, you copied the answers from the back of the book and you are good to ace that test and interpret the following data. Let’s break it down.

Starting Five

• Steph > Kyrie
  • Quiz Question: If Kyrie and Steph played one-on-one, first to 11 wins, winner gets five bucks, who would win?

  If Steph and Kyrie played one-on-one, first to 11 wins, who would win? I tackle that and #Cavs #Warriors stuff here: https://t.co/jCJcu7ImN6

  — Steve Godfrey (@JazzJunkie12) May 23, 2017

If they are playing according to the rules that you retain possession on a made basket, and Steph starts with the ball, then I’m picking Steph to not miss on his way to 11. If they are playing normal rules, though, I actually think Kyrie wins because Kyrie is fancy-dancy and would get a layup over and over again. Steph can dribble too, but Kyrie is nicknamed Uncle Drew and looks like he belongs on a one-on-one street-ball circuit tour. Plus, Kyrie would do this and Steph would owe him five bucks.

• Klay > JR Smith
  • Quiz Question: should Klay have earned one of the All-NBA honors?  Draymond Green used some choice words to describe how he felt, but he could have a valid argument. Klay is the fourth wheel that goes unnoticed, but is always solid. Throughout the regular season, Klay shot nearly 47%, and 41% from three, on his way to 22 ppg. Those numbers have dipped, significantly, throughout the postseason however: 14.5 ppg, 38% from the field, 36% from three. I’m not expecting this slump to last. In fact, I view him as the Warriors Finals X-Factor, who could very easily win the Finals MVP after stretches that blow the game open.
• KD < LBJ
  • Quiz Question: KD wins the head-to-head over every other small forward in the league, right? But now, well, he just so happens to get matched up against LeBron. I still remember the Sports Illustrated Cover of KD as a Thunder and he claimed he was sick of being 2nd. Well, sorry dude, you just so happen to play the same position in the same era as LeBron Freaking James so get used to that 2nd place seat. Bonus Quiz Question: but let’s say at the end of the day, they both retire with 4 rings. LeBron somehow wins one more, KD reels off 4 (as the great Kevin Garnett once said “Anything is Possible” especially with the dynasty they’ve built).  If the ring count is even, and they both left for superstar teams to get some rings, doesn’t LBJ hold the edge for getting one for Cleveland? And, OK,  KD has played 10 seasons, LeBron is at 14. What if both play 18 seasons? KD averages 25 ppg over that span which would get him close to 35,000 career points, maybe passes Kobe for 3rd all-time? LBJ is currently 7th all-time so 4 more years of 25 ppg over that span gets him over 37,000, good to pass The Mailman for 2nd? Now, I just threw up numbers and as careers wind down they aren’t going to put up 20+, but right now KD is a 27.2 career points per game and LBJ is 27.1.  So at the end of the day, with scoring records and durability and impact in other stats and of course #RingZ,  is there any way Durant can pass LeBron as best small forward in NBA history? What about as second best, over Larry Bird? Serious question.

• Draymond > Kevin Love
  • Quiz Question: On a team with the NBA MVPs from 2013-2016, couldn’t you make the argument that Dray is their team’s MVP? Is that a real thing? Like, you have two of the best players in the league on your team, yet you are the team’s most important player? For example, if the entire team went paint-balling together, or laser tagging works too, and you were picking teams out of everyone all lined up, tallest to shortest. Who would you pick first? Steph would make the game a lot of fun but I bet he would just make jokes all night. I bet JaVale McGee would be super entertaining  but he is so lanky and awkward that he wouldn’t cloak himself very well and you’d be compromised in a jiffy. If you want to annihilate the other team, destroy their will to smile, and make them cry as if they were cutting onions? Draymond all day.

• Zaza < Tristan Thompson
  • Quiz Question: Remember when people were up in arms because Tristan signed a max contract? Well, does Tristan deserve it? I think yes and view him as an underrated center in the league. Sure, he isn’t a stretch big but he is the glue guy that makes this Cavs team roll. He does all the little things – snags rebounds, switch defenders – and doesn’t need to score much. Plus, he catches lobs with force making him a (minor) threat in the paint. I view him as the Cavs X-Factor in the finals match-up. The Warriors will run Love off the floor, making Thompson the lone big. He did it well last year. If he keeps doing his job, the Cavs have a chance. Bonus Quiz Question: Lol at the idea of Khloe Kardashian willing to buy her own ring and pay for the wedding to get married to Thompson. 

Score: Warriors 3, Cavs 2.

Coaching

• Steve Kerr > Ty Lue
  • Quiz Question: Will Kerr coach in the finals? I think yes. He traveled with the team for the road games vs the Spurs and was in the locker room at Oracle for the home games. What better motivation and story-line could there be then the Warriors crushing the Cavs in the Steve Kerr 2017 Playoff Coaching Debut? And Kerr just gets it. He has molded this team and the system to perfectly complement each other, while being relentless and fun. He just knows basketball, but also knows this should be enjoyed. The players love their coach, he’ll come out, and thus we’ll see a firework show. Once he was ruled out with his back complications, I looked at it as a Sports Movie in the making. He’ll be on the bench at some point in the finals and it’ll warm our hearts like the way this puppy warms his.

• Mike Brown < Ty Lue
  • Quiz Question: Who was the coach of the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2007 when young LeBron went to the finals for the first time, getting swept by the San Antonio Spurs? Mike Brown. He was fired two years later, failing to bring a championship to Cleveland. Wouldn’t it be ironic, fitting, if he won a ‘ship as acting head coach, against his old team?

Score: Warriors 4, Cavs 3

Bench

• Iggy > Korver
  • Quiz Question: Are people in Utah still swooning over their Boy-Band hunk? These seem to be the first main guys off the bench. Iggy does more (the Warriors version of a glue-guy who does it all) but Korver is the ultimate sharp-shooter who has yet to break out in the postseason. Iggy edges Korver because he is so versatile, and can actually play defense. Sorry heart throb.
• Livingston < Deron Williams
  • Quiz Question: Has Deron been a solid waiver wire pick up for the Cavs? I think D-Will has done such a good job off the bench for CLE. He runs the offense, initiates the pick and roll, and knocks down threes (a requirement to play on this Cavs team). He’s just been solid. Livingston thrives on posting up his man and I think D-Will can hold his own in that situation. They both average about 15 minutes a game, 5 points, and 3 assists (in the postseason) so it’s pretty even statistically. Which backup PG would you want?
• Ian Clark < Shump
• Javale McGee  > Channing Frye
  • Quiz Question: If both backup bigs are in, which would you prefer? McGee rolling to the hoop and swatting shots or Frye stretching it out and nailing threes? For once in his life, McGee holds the advantage as he is an actual threat when on the court. Think about it, the Warriors one weakness is at center yet they get quality minutes from Zaza and McGee without having to revert to their Death Lineup. What a redemptive season he’s had, far from his Shaqtin-a-Fool days.

• David West < Richard Jefferson
  • Quiz Question: can you name when each of these grandpas were drafted? West: 2003 by New Orleans, pick 18. Jefferson: 2001 by Houston, pick 13. Old school at its best.

Score: Warriors 6, Cavs 6.

OK, lets look at stats from the postseason

• Points: GSW 117.4 > Cavs 116.3
• FG %: GSW 48% < Cavs 50%
• 3 Points: GSW 30 attempts on 39% < 33.5 attempts, 43%
  • Quiz Question: Does this surprise you? The Warriors are notorious for being a ‘jump shooting’ team, but the Cavs take more and have a higher percentage. They live and die by it.
• Rebounds: GSW 45.1 > Cavs  42
  • Quiz Question: Does this one surprise you? The Cavs are big – LeBron, Love, and TT are biiiiig – but the Warriors will out-rebound them? LeBron can get 10 boards a game easy, Love used to grab 20 back in Minnesota days, and TT’s job is to grab boards but KD, Draymond and Zaza have been getting it done better throughout the postseason.
• Assists: GSW 27.5 > Cavs 22
  • No surprise #1 with a lot of isolation, on-one-one ball in Cleveland.
• Defensive Rating: GSW 98.4 > Cavs 103.7
  • No surprise #2. The Cavs don’t like playing defense.
• Opp. Points in the Paint: GSW 43.8 > Cavs 44
• Opp. Fast Break Points: GSW 11.2 < Cavs 9.5
  • This will be key in the finals. If the Cavs can limit transition points, and force GSW to play half court ball, they’ll have a shot. The Warriors can strike a match and light a flame in a hurry. They are up and down just like that and two points becomes eight points in a flash. The Cavs can’t give up those easy points.
• Opp. Points off Turnovers: GSW 16.1 < Cavs 12.8
  • Ditto to fast break points.
• Steals GSW 9.4 > Cavs 7.4
• Blocks GSW 7.2 > Cavs 5.3
  • Again no surprise #2: Cavs don’t play much defense.

Score: Warriors 13, Cavs 10.

via GIPHY

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I’m rereading The Book of Basketball by Bill Simmons (humble brag. I had to specify that I’m rereading it, as in I’ve read it before, as in I’ve spent 704 pages of my life in this book and now I’m doing it again) and it’s been interesting to think about some concepts and topics in regards to the Warriors and the Cavs. For example, LeBron is listed as his #20 ranked player of all time. The book was published soon after The Decision and Simmons can’t forgive him for it, or give him added greatness because of it. Three rings later, Simmons now claims LBJ as a Top 5 dude.

via GIPHY

Anyways, early in the book, Simmons talks to Detroit great Isiah Thomas in Las Vegas and he asks him about the secret: What is the secret to winning basketball games, to becoming a champion? Thomas first says,  “it’s hard not to be selfish. The art of winning (is) complicated by statistics, which for us becomes money” (38). Good point, makes sense. If you have good stats, you get paid, and since basketball is your job, getting paid is a nice thing to support yourself and your family. But stats can be inflated or disguise the big picture. And in regards to the secret, stats get in the way of what is most important: winning.

Thomas goes on and says, when “the other team has to worry about stopping eight or nine people instead of two or three. It’s the only way to win” (39). He says that if the depth in a roster can forgo their egos and come together to do whatever it takes, as a team, that you’ll win. Good point, makes sense, right? But it’s also easier said than done which is why Isiah says, “that’s the secret. It’s not about basketball.” It’s about teamwork, cooperation, unity, and sacrifice.

Think about the depth on both rosters in this finals chess-match. Can’t you make the point that both define team and strive to fulfill this secret? When either team is on, like lights-out on, it’s a total team effort and total team domination.

In The Book of Basketball, the great Bill Russell, the symbol of greatness and team greatness, says “it’s much harder to keep a championship than to win one. After you’ve won once, some of the key figures are likely to grow dissatisfied with the role they play, so it’s harder to keep team focused on doing what it takes to win. Also, you’ve already done it so you can’t rely on the same drive that makes people climb mountains for the first time; winning isn’t new anymore….when you find someone who at age 30 or 35 has the motivation to overrule that increasing pain and aggravation, you have a champion.” (pg 50).

Again, wouldn’t both teams agree with Russ and say “yup. That’s us”? Both of their cores are basically the same from when they met the first time (oh yeah, one added KD). Since then, they’ve both gone through adversity; they both have fun playing together. They both have won it before and want it again; they both have legacies and reputations on the line. You can see it in their play and demeanor: they both want to be champions.

**********

I’ve gone back and forth on who holds the edge in this finals.

On one hand, the easy and first answer is the Warriors. Like, duh. The tallies above proved it. They are a historic team (most wins in a three-year span) with two different MVPs, still in their prime thank-you-very-much. Oh, and don’t forget two other All-Stars, one as a dead-eye sharp shooter and the other will be Defensive Player of the Year. They will hold home-court advantage, they will be out for revenge after losing last year (and becoming a viral 3-1 joke which is a big reason to tilt the series in their favor), and they will be motivated in winning for their coach who has been dealing with back complications. They enter the finals 12-0, winning 10 games by double digits and an average margin victory of 16.3. Offensively, they are top notch, but defensively they are legit too. It’s been all Warriors all season, so why would they come up short?

And yet, you think about all those factors and then counter with, well the other team has LeBron. It starts there. Cleveland has a chance because they have the best player in the series, and in the world, who just-so-happens to be playing his best basketball, like in his career, right now. On top of that, Cleveland has so many shooters that you think that can give them a chance and then you realize, hey Cleveland shoots threes more often, and better, than Golden State. They don’t play defense, but they flip a switch. And, heck, if they can score 130 points in a game do they need to play defense?  They also have depth (more so than GSW) and are the defending champs which means they have championship swagger. You know they are confident in themselves as Cavorriors #1, to them, was a fluke with injuries and then they won match #2. When they are on, they play the Warriors better than anyone. Why should they lose #3?

My mind, with reason and rationale, picks Golden State. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s not even close. They are clearly the better team (and stacked). But my heart says LeBron (and I’m sure my bias showed that I want it for him) and I just wouldn’t be surprised if he did it.