Four Keys to the Series

The Jazz are back in the dance for the first time in five years, when they were swept by the San Antonio Spurs in the first round.

Before we move onto the postseason, it’s worth taking a moment to realize the progression and growth this young squad has made.

In Ty Corbin last’s year as head coach, the Jazz won 25 games. Quin Snyder took over, won 38 in 2014-15, 40 the following year, and then 51 this year with a postseason berth.

Think about that for a minute.

The Duke Basketball twitter account, Snyder’s alma mater, tweeted the following:

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It’s been a fun regular season filled with hope and optimism not felt in awhile. But 82 games is over.  Now it’s time for the good stuff.

Here are four questions I have heading into this series with the Los Angeles Clippers.

Will the Jazz be nervous on the Big Stage?

As stated above, the Jazz have made steady improvements in the last few years, finally resulting in some postseason exposure. While the Jazz wish they could have been “happy to be there” in the playoffs last year for the experience factor, this year’s team needs to make some noise.

It’s not about just being there, it’s about winning.

Gordon Hayward and Rudy Gobert are the stars of the team, so will both of them prove that on a consistent, every game basis to the national media? I expect big things from Hayward especially, who struggled against the Clips in the three games he played against them in the regular season. Hayward ended up crossing the 20 ppg threshold for the season as a whole  (sitting at 21.9) but against the Clippers that number shrunk to 15.7 on 38% field goal shooting. That won’t cut it.

More often than not, it seems like the Jazz under-perform when on national TV for whatever reason. Now that the world is tuning in, the Jazz need their All-NBA guys (IMO, Gobert is a first teamer, while Hayward gets in on the third-team) to step up. Not only in big shots or timely blocks, but these two need to be aggressive, vocal, and sometimes mean to set the tone for the rest of the team under the bright lights.

The Jazz’s stars need to show up.

Can the Jazz win one on the road?

Do I wish the Jazz had secured home-court advantage? Of course. Am I that upset? No. The Jazz had a 51 win season, got back into the playoffs, and won their division. Those are quality accomplishments to be proud of. The Jazz were right there at the end of the day but a couple bad losses prevented home-court. There’s nothing to do about it now except steal a game on the road.

The Jazz lost both match-ups versus the Clippers in LA this season (went 1-3 overall) and neither in LA were that close (88-75 and 108-95). The Clippers have postseason experience, an energetic owner, and a decent home crowd but the Jazz know to win the series, they must win on the road.

While the Jazz and Clippers share records (51-39), they interestingly enough share the same splits: 29 and 12 at home, 22 and 19 on the road.

In my opinion, game ones are the ‘easiest’ to steal since it’s right at the beginning. Hit them head on, right from the get-go instead of when teams are in the routine and familiar with each other. As well, this team may have a hard time winning a Game 7 on the road, so they need to steal one now, rather than later.

Will everyone on the team stay healthy?

We’ve all heard the stats about how the Jazz’s starting five barely played together this year (started 13 games together, went 11-2). We all know George Hill played 49 games total, Derrick Favors played 50, and Rodney Hood played 59. Joe Ingles was the lone Jazzman to appear in all 82 games (Via Bball Reference).

The timing is right, however, as Raul Neto is the only name listed on the injury report prior to tonight’s game. If the Jazz can withstand the knicks and knacks that ultimately will come, and can avoid the knee and toe bruises that so doomed the regular season, they’ll be in good shape to compete and win the series. You hate for injuries to decide the postseason, but one bad break can swing the series.

Who will be the X-Factor?

On the Clippers side, the X-Factor is their bench. Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers are Jazz killers when playing for the second unit. During the four regular season match-ups, Rivers shot 57% from the field to average 15 ppg. Crawford, notorious as a 6th man, was nearly the same: 56% from the field to lay down 15.5 ppg. Add in stretch big Marreese Speights (played 16 min/game vs the Jazz to chip in seven ppg) and the Bench Mob could prove the difference.

The Jazz will need to find a way to slow down the Clippers bench.

Rivers will miss the first two games, nursing a hamstring injury, but he is expected to return in time for game three or four.

Not only will the Jazz starters have to up their averages from the regular season, and will probably have heavier minutes, but someone will have to give them life off the bench for the Jazz to be in this thing. It could be some big defense from Dante Exum, it could be some timely threes from Ingles, or it could be the savvy presence, and continued hot streak, of Joe Johnson (if not starting for Favors).

So who am I picking?

As a Tortured Fan, I have to be an optimist. I don’t think the Jazz are just content to be in this thing. The Jazz are here to win and I believe they can do so.

Sure, the regular season match-ups say otherwise, but I’m picking the Jazz in 6.

The Clippers roll into tonight on a seven-game win streak. It snaps tonight as the Jazz steal home-court, Clips win game two, Jazz come home to win games three and four, Clips get five, and then the Jazz close the series at home.

To make this come true, the Jazz will need Hayward and Gobert to play like the stars they are for all six (or I’ll take the Jazz in seven) games. Defense travels and the Jazz will need to maintain the stingiest defense in the NBA throughout the series  to steal a game on the road. As the Jazz stay healthy, and have a Joe (Johnson or Ingles or both!) be an X-Factor, the Jazz will advance to the second round to face the Warriors.

Bonus Prediction!: Admittedly, I can see the Clippers getting hot and blowing the Jazz out one game behind a barrage of threes. As a fresh, young, new playoff team – that barrage could be tonight.

If You Missed it: read how the series will look if everything goes right or how it might shake out if it all goes wrong.

Game one is tonight. Let’s go.

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