With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, the Jazz look to take care of business, finish on a high note, and secure home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

And I think they will.

The last few weeks for the Jazz have been up and down as they went 5-5, starting with that awful 1-3 East Coast road trip. But in my opinion, they won the game that mattered – Friday vs the Wizards on the last day of March. By winning that game, the Jazz are in good position to finish with 50 wins, which would give them the division banner and home court advantage in a first round series.

Preface

I’m a school teacher by day where I corral sophomore and junior high school students, teaching them the art of English in the spare time. The last period of the day is always the worst, and the day before spring break was bound to be a circus. I knew it would be a rowdy day so I secured computers for the day and arranged a digital lesson plan, where students plug in headphones and work online. It’s like babysitting – give them technology and they’ll only bug you for snacks. While my students worked silently, I got a few last minute assignments graded and prepped myself for my spring break. Once my tasks were finished, I quickly got bored. So I looked up schedules for the Jazz, the Clippers, and OKC and predicted how I think things will shake out.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Much to my delight, the Thunder have already proved my predictions wrong. I had them winning against Charlotte on Sunday, but the Thunder had other plans. Sure, Westbrook got another triple double, but he also look a L. The loss basically rules the Thunder out in the 4th/5th seed running.

As it stands, OKC, and seat-punching Enes the Menace, are 43-33. With six games remaining, the Thunder would have to go undefeated to give the Jazz or Clippers a scare for playoff positioning. It’s not going to happen. They have some tough games remaining – @Memphis, @Denver, and their next game is against a hot Bucks team. I have OKC finishing 47-35 and staying in the 6th spot.

I had seen people on twitter the last few weeks thinking the Thunder would sneak up and take the Jazz slot. I also saw people wanting that to happen as they viewed a match up with the Rockets as favorable to the Jazz.

I’m not in that camp.

Yes, John Stockton sent the Jazz to the NBA Finals with a rocket of his own in Houston, and yes, Deron Williams and his Jazz won a Game 7 in Houston to escape the first round but this Rockets team is  potent. James Harden is playing out of his mind, so many other guys can shoot from deep, and they would run us away in a 7-game series. Sure, they could easily miss 25 threes, but they could just as easily make 25 whereas the Jazz don’t have that kind of offensive firepower. We have had some good regular season games against them this year as we won two of the matchups, one in a blowout.  BUT, I’d still prefer to play the Clippers and I’ll tell you why later.

Los Angeles Clippers

Predicting the last few games for the Clippers was actually kind of easy. They are 47-31 with dates with the Mavs, @Spurs, Rockets, and then Kings left on their slate. I’m pegging them for 2-2, with losses to the Spurs and Rockets forthcoming. If that happens, they’d finish at 49-33.

That means 50 is the magic number for our Jazz.

Utah Jazz

After splitting the weekend 1-1, the Jazz sit at 47-30. For me, I think they finish:

vs Portland W

vs Minnesota W

@Portland L

@GSW L

vs Spurs W

Honestly, I crunched the wins/losses before I looked at what the Jazz’s record was or what they would need to do to finish higher than the Clippers. I just wanted to see what my gut would pick and then add it up and see where it would all shake out. 50 is just the magic number.

Portland is hot, so I think they split the match ups with them, each winning on their home court. We take care of business vs the Timberwolves (that March 1st beat-down was disgusting) and the Warriors do what the Warriors do (and bets are Draymond Green gets offended by something at some point and whines) (also betting that Rudy decides to elbow Green at some point to officially secure a crotch shot).

Then, I’m banking on the Jazz playing with some urgency to end the season and beat the Spurs in Vivint. Way back in November, the Jazz put it all together and beat the Spurs in SA, 106-91. People suggest that Pop may rest players this time around, but regardless, that becomes a must-win for the Jazz if they want home court vs the Clips. I am holding out hope that they can do it. 

So, why I want the Clippers

If the records shake out like I think, the Jazz will hold onto the 4th seed, with LAC sitting slightly behind at 5th. For most NBA fans, this might not be a must-watch series or carry much intrigue, but it’s a perfect match up for me.

Warriors and Spurs are in Tier 1, with the Rockets being in Tier 1A. After that, a clump sits in Tier 2, which involves these teams. Yet, the Jazz weren’t even close in three of the games against the Clippers this season. Chris Paul carved us up, their bench came up big, and we fell flat for multiple stretches at a time which sealed the deal.

But still the Clippers don’t scare me. They have literally imploded multiple times on multiple stages throughout the last few years. We all know about their playoff difficulties, but they also let the Sacramento Kings stage an epic comeback just a few weeks ago. At times, they seem old. They whine too much and rely on whistles which helps the spiral. Their big three just hasn’t quite performed like they should and this is their last rodeo. You can just feel it. I just don’t think they can shake the monkey off their back and get over their hump.

In the one Jazz win, the Jazz did a great job shutting Blake Griffin down (even pitting Hayward on him at times), something I can see us doing more often. If we can contain Chris Paul and have some bench help, we will be in every game. It’s an understatement, but our defense is better than theirs and I think that will help keep us in the games. I could see the Clippers getting hot and winning big once, but I can’t see them wiping the floor with us.

Plus, I believe in the Jazz 6th man. I’ve seen the stats that we really haven’t been that great at home vs on the road this year so home court shouldn’t matter too much, but we’re talking about the playoffs. Jazz fans have missed the taste of playoff basketball for the last five years, but really even longer if you think about it. That year the Jazz snagged the 8th seed and we all knew we didn’t stand a chance against the Spurs. This year is different. We’ve seen that we can compete. We’ve seen our defense shut teams down. We’ve seen big shots and big moments. We know we can win a first round series. We know we can break the Clippers. I think that mentality and energy will fill Vivint and make for some rowdy basketball that the Clippers can’t match.

And isn’t this an awesome conversation to have? Preseason expectations pegged the Jazz to be in the playoffs, some even ventured we’d snag the 4th seed. I was skeptical, yet here we are. We are in the conversation, we are in the dance, and we have much to look forward to. Let’s go get it.